View 03 · The steady state
Ethereum held first of thirteen chains in all 36 months to October 31, 2026, while ether fell 41.77 percent over the last twelve.
Where Ethereum stood against twelve other chains each month for three years, what moved and what did not, and what past market shocks did to that standing.
Monthly readings, November 30, 2023 to October 31, 2026 · ether closes from Yahoo Finance
Two of Ethereum's four scores did not move with the price, and the other two moved with money flows.
The four lines are Ethereum's monthly scores on the four scored dimensions, 0 to 100. The grey area behind them is ether's month-end price. Drag the month or press play to read any month.
Swipe the chart sideways to see all 36 months.
The field re-ordered around a chain that did not move.
Each line is one chain's rank on the Structural Scorecard, month by month. Hover or tap a line to follow one chain.
Swipe the chart sideways to see all 36 months.
Show the 36 months as a table
| Month ending | Rank | Composite | Settlement demand | Ecosystem gravity | Monetary dynamics | Capital access | Ether close |
|---|
Of seven past market shocks, only bitcoin fund outflows tracked month-to-month changes in Ethereum's lead beyond chance.
Set a shock size on each slider to count the past months at least that bad and see what Ethereum's lead did in each. The lead is the steady-state test's reading of how far Ethereum's scores sit above those of BNB Chain and Tron, the two chains whose scores barely move; the card above explains it. The sliders open at the line for the worst tenth of months.
No shock in the record pulled Ethereum's scores down to the still chains. Its lead read between 11.33 and 14.10 in all 36 months.
Bitcoin drawdown
Bitcoin's fall over 30 trading days, at month end
The worst tenth of months starts at a fall of 16.2 percent.
Real-yield rise
Rise in the 10-year real yield over the month, in percentage points
The worst tenth of months starts at a rise of 0.30 points.
Ether fund outflow
Net money pulled from US spot ether funds in the month
The worst tenth of months starts at an outflow of $563.8 million. US spot ether funds began trading on July 23, 2024, so 8 months are blank.
Counts of past months, not a forecast. A month's change in the lead is measured against the month before.
| Shock, worst-tenth line | Months ending | Lead rose | Lead fell | Rank correlation with the monthly change in the lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin's 30-day return below minus 16.2 percent | February 28, 2025; November 30, 2025; February 28, 2026; June 30, 2026 | 2 | 2 | minus 0.26 over 35 months |
| 10-year real yield up 0.30 points or more | April 30, 2024; October 31, 2024; December 31, 2024; September 30, 2026 | 1 | 3 | minus 0.23 over 35 months |
| Dollar index up more than 2.36 percent | October 31, 2024; December 31, 2024; July 31, 2025; March 31, 2026 | 0 | 4 | minus 0.13 over 35 months |
| Nasdaq-100 down more than 3.88 percent | April 30, 2024; March 31, 2025; March 31, 2026; July 31, 2026 | 0 | 4 | minus 0.03 over 35 months |
| US spot ether fund outflow beyond $563.8 million | November 30, 2025; December 31, 2025; October 31, 2026 | 2 | 1 | minus 0.26 over 28 months |
| US spot bitcoin fund outflow beyond $2.17 billion | February 28, 2025; November 30, 2025; May 31, 2026; June 30, 2026 | 3 | 1 | minus 0.39 over 34 months, stronger than chance at the 5 percent level |
| Stablecoin supply, all chains, down more than 0.69 percent | January 31, 2026; June 30, 2026; July 31, 2026; October 31, 2026 | 2 | 2 | minus 0.21 over 35 months |
Method
Scores are from the Structural Scorecard, cut B: thirteen chains scored monthly on Settlement demand, Monetary dynamics, Capital access and Ecosystem gravity, each 0 to 100 against the cohort in the same month, back-cast from public series over the 36 months from November 1, 2023 to October 31, 2026. Rank is by composite score. Ether's price is the last daily close of each month from Yahoo Finance.
The steady-state test fitted three candidate rules to the monthly scores and asked whether the chains drift back toward one position. Each candidate scored below the 0.65 pass mark (best 0.538), under every holdout split. The test therefore does not describe a steady state; this page reads the scores and ranks directly. The lead on the shocks tab is the best candidate's reading, kept because the shock counts were built on it and labelled as nominal.
The shock tab lines up seven monthly series against the monthly change in that lead. The worst-tenth line marks the tenth of months with the largest adverse change. The rank correlation is Spearman's, over the months with data.